Geopolitics · 101 OPEN MARKETS· Sign up to predict
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closes in about 1 monthIsraeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY11%
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closes in 20 daysWill Trump and Xi hug at their summit?
MARKET PROBABILITY27%
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closes in 20 daysWill Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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closes in 20 daysTrump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of Xi summit?
MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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closes in 13 daysTrump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?
MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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closes in 3 monthsPutin meets with Iranian officials by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY99%
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closes in 3 monthsIran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
MARKET PROBABILITY24%
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closes in 3 monthsIran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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closes in about 1 monthWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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closes in about 1 monthWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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closes in about 1 monthUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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closes in 2 monthsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
MARKET PROBABILITY13%
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closes in about 1 monthStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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closes in about 1 monthWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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closes in 13 daysUS imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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closes in 3 monthsTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY4%
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closes in 3 monthsUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY10%
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closes in 3 monthsNawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY24%
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closes in 3 monthsNawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY24%
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closes in 3 monthsWill any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY13%
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closes in 3 monthsWill any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY13%
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closes in 3 monthsJoseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY9%
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closes in 3 monthsJoseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY9%
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closes in 3 monthsOPEC dissolves in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY4%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY9%
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closes in 3 monthsWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY33%
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closes in 3 monthsWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY33%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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closes in 3 monthsAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY11%
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closes in 3 monthsAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY11%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Iran legalize gay marriage?
MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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closes in 3 monthsWill UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY9%
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closes in 3 monthsUkraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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closes in 3 monthsUAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY4%
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closes in 3 monthsRussia coup attempt in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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closes in 3 monthsUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY12%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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closes in 3 monthsWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY25%
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closes in 3 monthsWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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closes in 3 monthsAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY88%
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closes in 3 monthsU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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closes in 3 monthsU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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closes in 3 monthsU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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closes in 3 monthsUS recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY4%
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