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Geopolitics · 101 OPEN MARKETS· Sign up to predict

GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY10%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY10%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY10%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY13%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY13%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY13%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY13%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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closes in 3 months

Iran Nuke before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 12 days

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

MARKET PROBABILITY1%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 12 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

MARKET PROBABILITY1%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY12%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY17%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

MARKET PROBABILITY19%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY28%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 13 days

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?

MARKET PROBABILITY1%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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closes in 3 months

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY11%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 13 days

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?

MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY9%
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closes in 3 months

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY4%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in over 1 year

Maduro guilty of all counts?

MARKET PROBABILITY20%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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closes in 3 months

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY12%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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closes in 3 months

China coup attempt before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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closes in 3 months

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

US x China Military clash before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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