Geopolitics · 101 OPEN MARKETS· Sign up to predict
GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 monthsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY89%
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closes in 3 monthsWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY4%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 monthsUS x Cuba military clash in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY14%
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closes in 3 monthsWill the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY1%
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closes in 3 monthsWill the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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closes in 3 monthsPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY24%
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closes in 3 monthsIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY13%
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closes in 3 monthsWill Venezuela become 51st state?
MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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closes in 3 monthsIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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closes in 9 monthsWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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closes in 3 monthsUS military draft authorized in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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closes in 3 monthsErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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closes in 3 monthsUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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closes in 3 monthsWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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closes in 3 monthsChina x Japan military clash before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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closes in 3 monthsIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY13%
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closes in 3 monthsCuban regime falls in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY14%
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closes in 12 daysWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY0%
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closes in over 1 yearWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY12%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 monthsChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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closes in 3 monthsWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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closes in 3 monthsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
MARKET PROBABILITY18%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 monthsWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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closes in 3 monthsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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closes in 3 monthsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
MARKET PROBABILITY4%
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closes in 3 monthsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
MARKET PROBABILITY17%
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