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ELECTIONSPOLYMARKET
closes in 15 days

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY1%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY1%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY4%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

NATO dissolves before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in over 1 year

Maduro guilty of all counts?

MARKET PROBABILITY20%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in over 1 year

Maduro guilty of all counts?

MARKET PROBABILITY20%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in over 1 year

Maduro guilty of all counts?

MARKET PROBABILITY20%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?

MARKET PROBABILITY9%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?

MARKET PROBABILITY9%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?

MARKET PROBABILITY9%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY2%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY12%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

China coup attempt before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY6%
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ELECTIONSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY18%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY5%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in about 1 month

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in about 1 month

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in about 1 month

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in about 1 month

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY9%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

US x China Military clash before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

US x China Military clash before 2027?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

MARKET PROBABILITY3%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

MARKET PROBABILITY89%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

MARKET PROBABILITY89%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

MARKET PROBABILITY1%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY8%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY4%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY14%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY7%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY1%
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GEOPOLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

MARKET PROBABILITY1%
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POLITICSPOLYMARKET
closes in 3 months

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

MARKET PROBABILITY26%
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